It’s really easy to find out when the biggest crowds will be there because it coincides with when the rooms are most expensive.
The DVC charts tell all. Christmas, Presidents Day Weekend, Spring Break, and, yes, Thanksgiving are the most in demand.
In years past we could sneak into DL the days leading up to Thanksgiving, but with the school year getting longer a lot of schools are taking the whole week of Thanksgiving off.
We went to DL this past Thanksgiving checking in the Friday before and checking out Tuesday. Sat and Sun were ok then Monday it got crazy. I can’t imagine what it looked the days following.
I’m not saying “don’t go” and I know DL is not DW, but it just sounds like you think it’s going to be moderately heavy crowds, but I’m here to tell you those parks will be full.
One thing cool is that they usually bring in special music groups and such for the big events but heed the advice of others and plan your day. The waits for the popular rides will be hours long, so FP early and often.
When I was young (around 18 or so) I went to DL with my older brothers. The line for Space Mountain was three hours long. We were just getting through the line to get to the other side. A guy grabbed my jacket and told me to get to the back of the line. I started to explain what I was doing and my brothers came back through and basically told the guy what they thought of him stopping me. I was young, but I knew then and there that I would never go back during a major holiday.
Anyway, the week after, the place will be a ghost town, but I know lots of people can’t pull it off and Thanksgiving is the only alternative.